Climatic risk zoning for potential occurrence of cacao moniliasis disease in Northeastern Brazil under the influence of ENSO phases

Air temperature and relative humidity are the main drivers of many fungal diseases, such as moniliasis (Moniliophthora roreri), which affects cocoa production worldwide. This disease occurs in some Latin American countries; however, it has not yet occurred Brazil. Moniliasis could cause serious damage to Brazilian if present country. Therefore, know risks largest producing region, state Bahia, this study investigated climatic favorability for occurrence state, by defining mapping assessing influence El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phases on it. Historical daily data (1988–2018) from 28 weather stations national network Bahia were obtained. The risk index (RICM) was determined, based number days five levels favorability. Spatial interpolation seasonal annual RICM done through a multiple linear regression method using latitude, longitude, altitude predictor variables. maps showed high spatial temporal variability with highest eastern part where most areas located. ENSO phase occurrence, years transition between Neutral being critical majority assessed locations. These results show that producers Brazil, should be concerned potential their crops, mainly traditional regions when is neutral.